The quick scan (71 markets) uses a simplified 8-factor scoring function. The full dual engine (linear + vector) uses 17 dimensions + archetype matching. Where picks appear in both systems, the dual engine score takes priority as it's more comprehensive. This report shows reconciled scores — dual engine for established picks, quick scan for new discoveries.
| # | Market | Type | Platform | Price | Conv | Action | Sizing | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Championship | Futures | POLY | 7¢ | 96 | Strong Buy | $25-30 | Dual engine CONFIRMED. KenPom dual #5. Sampson 3x FF. 7¢ vs 9% sportsbook = biggest edge in market. |
| 2 | Arizona Championship | Futures | POLY | 17.8¢ | 96 | Strong Buy | $20-25 | Dual engine CONFIRMED. Closest to "Average Champion" archetype. 1-seed, KenPom #2. |
| 3 | Iowa State Championship | Futures | POLY | 4.8¢ | 94 | Strong Buy | $15-20 | Vector UPGRADED. "Grinder" archetype at 0.998 cosine — closest to Villanova '16. 4.8¢ vs 6-7% book. |
| 4 | VCU ML vs UNC | R1 Game | KALSHI 2.14x | 45¢ | 92 | Strong Buy | $20 | Dual engine CONFIRMED. UNC lost Caleb Wilson (top-5 pick). 6v11 = 37.5% historical. "Grinder" archetype match. |
| 5 | 15-Seed Upset YES | Prop | POLY | 8¢ | 91 | Strong Buy | $15-20 | NEW FIND. 4 games × 6.9% per game = 24.9% P(at least 1). At 4% conservative = 15.1%. At 8¢ = massive +7-17% edge. |
| 6 | Santa Clara ML vs Kentucky | R1 Game | KALSHI 2.34x | ~43¢ | 89 | Strong Buy | $15 | Dual engine CONFIRMED. 5v12 = 35.6% over 40 years. "Grinder" archetype. Classic mid-major vs blue blood. |
| 7 | Florida Championship | Futures | POLY | 11.3¢ | 88 | Strong Buy | $10 | Vector UPGRADED from 76→88. Tampa venue +0.40. Defending champ DNA. 11.3¢ vs 13% book = 1.7¢ edge. |
| # | Market | Type | Platform | Price | Conv | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | S. Florida ML vs Louisville | R1 Game | POLY | 34¢ | 84 | Vector matched "Grinder" at 0.978. 6v11 = 37.5%. Kalshi 2.81x. Small position. |
| 9 | Michigan Sweet 16 | Advancement | POLY | 73¢ | 83 | 1-seed at 73¢ to make Sweet 16. KenPom dual. Public fade risk but profile is champion-tier. |
| 10 | Duke Championship | Futures | POLY | 21¢ | 82 | FLAGGED by dual engine. Vector 97, Linear 82. Foster OUT is real risk. Don't oversize. |
| 11 | Arizona Sweet 16 | Advancement | POLY | 82¢ | 79 | 1-seed, KenPom #2. 82¢ for Sweet 16 is reasonable value if you believe in their championship path. |
| 12 | Michigan Championship | Futures | POLY | 19¢ | 78 | FLAGGED. Biggest dual engine disagreement (+20). "Balanced Powerhouse" archetype but most public team. |
| 13 | TCU ML vs Ohio State | R1 Game | POLY | 44¢ | 77 | NEW FIND. 8v9 = 48.8% upset rate. At 44¢ = slight edge. Ohio St -2.5 only. |
| 14 | Troy ML vs Nebraska | R1 Game | POLY | 12¢ | 77 | NEW FIND. Quick scan flagged. Troy 6v11 = 37.5% hist but at 12¢ (12%) the edge is thin. Low volume. |
| # | Market | Price | Conv | Trigger to Buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Florida Sweet 16 | 82¢ | 72 | Buy if drops below 78¢. Tampa venue is real but 82¢ is close to fair. |
| 16 | Kennesaw St ML vs Gonzaga | 6¢ | 69 | Gonzaga missing Huff (15 games). 3v14 = 14.4%. At 6¢ the edge is thin but injury is significant. |
| 17 | Furman ML vs UConn | ~8% | 66 | UConn's Stewart uncertain. If Stewart ruled OUT, this jumps to BUY territory. |
| 18 | St. Louis ML vs Georgia | 42¢ | 61 | Playing IN St. Louis (+3 venue). 5v12 = 35.6%. At 42¢ it's fairly priced but venue edge is real. Small sprinkle. |
| 19 | Akron ML vs Texas Tech | ~25% | 50 | TT lost Toppin, line dropped -8.5→-7.5. Monitor — if more TT injury news, this becomes a BUY. |
| Market | Price | Conv | Finding |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-Seed Upset YES ★ | 8¢ | 91 | BIGGEST NEW FIND. The math is overwhelming: 4 games × 6.9% = 24.9% chance of at least 1 upset. Even at conservative 4% per game = 15.1%. At 8¢ this is almost 2x underpriced. |
| TCU ML vs Ohio State | 44¢ | 77 | 8v9 matchup = historical coin flip (48.8%). At 44¢ there's a small edge. Ohio St only -2.5. |
| S. Florida ML vs Louisville ↑ | 34¢ | 84 | UPGRADED from Watch to Buy. Vector "Grinder" archetype match elevated this. 6v11 at 2.81x Kalshi is good value. |
| Kennesaw St ML vs Gonzaga | 6¢ | 69 | Gonzaga missing Huff for 15 games. 3v14 = 14.4% base rate. At 6¢ there's ~8% edge but very low conviction. |
| St. Louis ML vs Georgia | 42¢ | 61 | Venue play — St. Louis is playing IN St. Louis. 5v12 = 35.6%. Quasi-home game advantage. Monitor line. |
| Priority | Bet | Platform | Amount | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Championship YES @ 7¢ | POLY | $25 | Now |
| 2 | 15-Seed Upset YES @ 8¢ | POLY | $20 | Now |
| 3 | Iowa State Championship YES @ 4.8¢ | POLY | $15 | Now |
| 4 | Florida Championship YES @ 11.3¢ | POLY | $10 | Now |
| 5 | VCU ML vs UNC | KALSHI | $20 | Thu pre-game |
| 6 | Santa Clara ML vs Kentucky | KALSHI | $15 | Game day |
| 7 | S. Florida ML vs Louisville | KALSHI | $10 | Thu pre-game |
| 8 | TCU ML vs Ohio State | POLY | $10 | Thu pre-game |
| TOTAL DEPLOYED | $125 | 30% of cash | ||
| Remaining cash after deployment | $291.80 | For R2 + live plays | ||
| Category | Count | Why No Edge |
|---|---|---|
| 1v16 / 2v15 games | 8 | Favorites correctly priced at 93-99¢. No value betting on massive underdogs at 1-7¢ against elite defenses. |
| 3v14 games (most) | 4 | 14.4% upset rate but prices already reflect this. McNeese/Vanderbilt, Kennesaw/Gonzaga borderline on watch list. |
| Advancement (most) | 15 | Sweet 16, E8, F4, Championship Game markets mostly fairly priced or ILLIQUID ($0 volume on Polymarket Semifinals). |
| 16-seed upset prop | 1 | 4¢ vs 4.9% true prob = no edge. This year's 16-seeds face Duke/Arizona (strongest 1-seeds in years). |
| Individual award props | 5 | MOP, POY, Coach awards — either overpriced (Fears Jr 41¢), no edge (Boozer 98¢), or insufficient data. |
| Fun props (Rothstein, etc.) | 2 | Entertainment value only. No mathematical edge. |
| Other R1 games | 17 | Prices align with historical seed rates. No mispricing detected on remaining matchups. |
Dual Conviction Engine: Established picks scored by full 17-dimension vector model + 7-factor linear model (see Dual Conviction Report). New markets scored by 8-factor quick scan (historical seed rate, spread, injuries, momentum, experience, public fade, venue, coaching). Where both systems scored a pick, the dual engine score takes priority.
Data Sources: Polymarket (live Chrome scrape), Kalshi (from earlier session), ESPN/CBS/Yahoo spreads (web search), KenPom (historical), RotoWire/SI (injuries), 40 years of seed upset data (1985-2025).
Position Sizing: Half-Kelly for STRONG BUY (85+). Quarter-Kelly for BUY (75-84). No position for WATCH or below. Max single position: 10% of bankroll ($41.68). Total deployment: ~30% of available cash, leaving 70% for R2/live plays.